Week 5 NFL Picks

A little bit of a theme this week--winless teams getting their first W. We'll see how it goes.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) @ Buffalo Bills (0-4)
The Bills have come close a couple times. They're not good but they're not bad enough to go winless either and the Jags just aren't that good. The game's in Buffalo, so here winless team with a win #1. Trevor's Pick: Bills 20-16

New York Giants (2-2) @ Houston Texans (3-1)
The Giants defense looked great against the Bears, but I'm still not buying them. I think the Bears were exposed more than anything, and I don't mean they took their towels off.
Trevor's Pick: Texans 27-13

Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) @ Indianapolis Colts (2-2)
Hope the Chiefs enjoyed one extra week of being undefeated with their bye, because that all ends this week. The Colts have to be a little pissed about being 2-2 and this game is in Indy.
Trevor's Pick: Colts 31-13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals (2-2)
I have no idea what to expect from the Bengals anymore, but I do know the Bucs aren't really that good. Glad they got a couple wins early so they could be relevant into week 5.
Trevor's Pick: Bengals 20-10

Green Bay Packers (3-1) @ Washington Redskins (2-2)
This might be the game of the week. Two good teams, both with significant weaknesses. When in doubt, pick the team you want to lose.
Trevor's Pick: Packers 24-23

St. Louis Rams (2-2) @ Detroit Lions (0-4)
Sam Bradford has been tight so far. Matthew Stafford's not back yet. The Lions are too much improved to keep losing every game.
Trevor's Pick: Lions 28-19

Chicago Bears (3-1) @ Carolina Panthers (0-4)
After watching the Bears line I don't know how to pick them. Mike Martz is stubborn and I'm not sure he'll make the adjustments necessary to plug the holes.
Trevor's Pick: Panthers 16-10

Atlanta Falcons (3-1) @ Cleveland Browns (1-3)

Trevor's Pick: Falcons 24-12

Denver Broncos (2-2) @ Baltimore Ravens (3-1)

Trevor's Pick: Ravens 23-19

New Orleans Saints (3-1) @ Arizona Cardinals (2-2)

Trevor's Pick: Saints 34-9

Tennessee Titans (2-2) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-2)

Trevor's Pick: Cowboys 20-13

San Diego Chargers (2-2) @ Oakland Raiders (1-3)

Trevor's Pick: Chargers 25-13

Philadelphia Eagles (2-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (0-4)

Trevor's Pick: 49ers 16-14

Minnesota Vikings (1-2) @ New York Jets (3-1)

Trevor's Pick: Jets 23-16

Mmmm...Mossy

Randy Moss is a Viking again. I've missed seeing leaping touchdowns and officials getting doused with water from Gatorade bottles. Homecomings are supposed to be nice, unless you meet an old girlfriend and it gets awkward. Since Randy doesn't have any old girlfriends at the Metrodome (as far as I know) this homecoming might work out okay.

Randy wants to prove again that he can still play. He is a free agent at the end of the year and wants his last payday. He and Favre have a man-crush. All the right variables are in place for a good return to Minnesota.

The question is if Randy can still play. I'm not sure. Once Sidney Rice comes back he'll make a good #2 if he can stay motivated, and that's a big if. The reality is that the Vikings missed their chance at a Super Bowl last year and that won't change with the return of Moss. But at least it makes their season a little more interesting.

Ragdolls

After another glorious weekend of tasty football action, it's time to recap everything you ever want to know.

College
Here's why picking against the spread can be worse than your Grandpa's boxers...I got the winner right with Iowa, but the spread wrong.  Oh well.  In a fantastic turn of fortune, I went from 3-0 to 4-4 on the season.  At least Oregon won.  Trevor's 3-2 on the week, so good job.  Gooder than wooder.

Prose
Trevor went 10-4 on winners.  Pretty solid.  I went 10-4.  Even better.  I can't believe I did better than Trevor this week.  What?  We got the same record?  You aren't counting the handicap for Trevor's superior expertise on pro football compared to mine.  So I'm the winner.  (Pull my shirt over my head in the front and run around like crazy) GOOOOOOOLLLLLLL!!!!!!!

Week 4 NFL Picks

After a solid performance last week I'm looking to keep looking up which is where I look when I'm looking. Can I count all the byes as wins?

New York Jets (2-1) @ Buffalo Bills (0-3)
I'd love to take the Bills here. They did have a good showing in a loss last week, the game is at home, and Trent Edwards is gone for good, but I'd hate to start off 0-1. It's going to be hard to find a game where the Bills actually win. I don't think they're as bad as the Lions a couple years ago, and they'll stay in some games, but I'm not sure they can actually pull it out.
Trevor's Pick: Jets 27-14

Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) @ Cleveland Browns (0-3)
The Browns are another team I'll struggle to ever pick to actually win. The Bengals are still trying to work out some offensive issues. I'm not sure Carson Palmer is as elite as everyone wants to make him out to be. I have to go based on helmets here...
Trevor's Pick: Bengals 20-9

Denver Broncos (1-2) @ Tennessee Titans (2-1)
I like this game. The Broncos made a couple big mistakes or they would have competed with the Colts who are starting to put it together. Vince Young has been way worse than I thought he'd be coming into this year and if they have to go to CJ in every tough spot it'll be hard to keep winning. The Titans look shaky. If this game were in Denver I'd take the Broncos, in Nashville...
Trevor's Pick: Broncos 17-16

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
Drew Brees is going to be wearing a knee brace on Sunday. Reggie Bush is out and the Saints seem to get hit with substantial injuries every week this year. They're coming off a tough loss that could effect their morale. The Panthers suck.
Trevor's Pick: Saints 27-10

Detroit Lions (0-3) @ Green Bay Packers (2-1)
The Lions remind me of myself trying to dunk in college. I was in the best shape of my life. I'd take a tennis ball and flush it through. Then I'd take a basketball and could never make it happen. Who knows if it was that my hands were too small to hold the ball, a mental block, or that I just didn't have quite enough hops with the bigger ball, but I couldn't do it. That's the Lions trying to win.
Trevor's Pick: Packers 31-21

Seattle Seahawks (2-1) @ St. Louis Rams (1-2)
I'm starting to walk alongside the Rams bandwagon. Just kind of eyeballing it at this point. The injury to Steven Jackson makes this a really tough pick. The Seahawks are getting big plays but can't seem to get that offense really in sync. The game's not in Seattle which makes a big difference in this case.
Trevor's Pick: Rams 23-16

San Francisco 49ers (0-3) @ Atlanta Falcons (2-1)
You gotta love the darlings of the ESPN family falling from playoff contention by week 4. The 49ers are switching coaches and probably wearing underwear rubbed with a rabbit's foot. It won't matter. There's just something wrong there. Maybe it's Alex Smith.
Trevor's Pick: Falcons 20-7

Baltimore Ravens (2-1) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0)
This is one of the best games of the weekend. I seriously can't believe the Steelers are doing what they're doing. They hardly have a quarterback! Their defense is just sick right now. But I think the Ravens defense will lock down the offense and the Ravens offense will have enough punch to put them over the top.
Trevor's Pick: Ravens 16-10

Houston Texans (2-1) @ Oakland Raiders (1-2)
This week will say a lot about the Texans. No secret I've been driving their bandwagon so far this season, but if they're legit they can't lose to the Raiders. I say last week was a fluke and they recover.
Trevor's Pick: Texans 28-17

Indianapolis Colts (2-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)
Seriously?
Trevor's Pick: Colts 34-7

Washington Redskins (1-2) @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-0)
My favorite thing about this game is that once it's over I won't have to hear about how Donovan McNabb feels about going back to Philly as a Redskin. I won't be subjected to the drivel of senseless debates over whether he'll be booed or cheered. Oh, wait. All of next week will be about reviewing what happened. They probably won't even talk about the game, just Donovan's feelings.
Trevor's Pick: Eagles 24-13

Arizona Cardinals (1-2) @ San Diego Chargers (1-2)
The Chargers keep repeating the same bad pattern like a fat guy jumping off a diet at the first sight of a donut. They start the year crappy then finish strong to win the division. Against most teams in the league I'd pick the Chargers to lose, but until the Cardinals have someone other than Derek Anderson at quarterback I won't pick them to win again.
Trevor's Pick: San Diego Chargers 30-12

Chicago Bears (3-0) @ New York Giants (1-2)
If you listen to every ESPN personality in the universe and under the universe you know that the Giants are backed into a corner right now. They are like a bear cub about to spring and maul the Bears (no relation) because they have to. No matter how much a team "has to win" they can't if they don't really care and have less abilities.
Trevor's Pick: Bears 23-10

New England Patriots (2-1) @ Miami Dolphins (2-1)
I like the Dolphins. Brandon Marshall is an absolute beast. A passing game paired with the wildcat run by Brown and Williams plus a defense that will continue to improve each week adds up to a team that is going to be great by the end of the season. They're still putting it together but have enough to beat the Pats at home.
Trevor's Pick: Dolphins 24-21

Futbol Americano de Universidad

Sorry I done missed my picks for college football last week.  I had the ole' midterms all up on my patio trying to bum my last stick of butter.  But now I'm backer than you thought I could be.  I have 45 minutes until class, so I'm totally gonna face you with this insanity.   Since I missed a week, here's the deal again, these are the top five games you should be excited about with the spread and my picks.  And it's conference time.  Oh man, conference time is like going to work at Jump Street and it's Everybody Get To Jump All Day Instead Of Work Day.  So here's to more Trevor Specials on the angled tramps...

5.  Penn State v. Iowa (-7) - I have to admit that there's not much to this game other than the two ranked Big Ten teams angle.  Even then, I'm not really big on either of these teams.  PSU is never gonna be significant as long as old time JoPa is at the helm.  I'm not trying to force retirement or anything.  Just be accustomed to be average, PSU-fans.  Then there's Iowa.  They can't even keep the power going for a SportsNation remote.  Talk about relevant information.  Anyway, 7 is a large spread for two teams that seem to be fairly close, so take Penn State on points, Iowa to win

4.  Texas v. Oklahoma (-4) - Texas...what are you doing?  Just kidding.  UCLA is on the rise (along with the rest of the Pac-10), so with a new QB and stuff, don't be too hard on yourself.  You just have no shot at a national title.  Anyway, Oklahoma is also on a new QB, so it's battle-city.  It's a big rivalry game blah blah blah, Big 12, blah blah.  Who cares?  Not me.  Longhorns bounce back and win outright.

3.  Florida v. Alabama (-7) - It's a face-off that was the preliminary national championship last year.  This year, it's going to be the strength of Alabama vs. Urban Meyer's system.  Ingram's second game back could be a doozy as he tries to put himself in Heisman contention.  Maybe he should focus less on his game and more on his sweet under-the-table benefits.  Then he could at least enjoy his Heisman for five years.  Ultimately, I believe in strength over system.  Take Bama for win and points.

2.  Michigan St. v. Wisconsin (Pick) - Now is where it gets good.  Sure the previous three are important, but I don't really care.  But two ranked undefeated Big 10 teams near Minnesota and Indiana?  That's my jam.  Strawbdog jam.  I'm still looking forward to seeing how things pan out for both of these teams.  Clay is legit...perhaps he's too legit to quit.  Michigan St. may be the best team in the Mitt...especially if Shoelaces stays injured.  Sooo, I'll take Wisconsin.

1.  Stanford v. Oregon (-6) - Sweet boondoggle of justice, this is the game of the week by 40 miles...Canadian miles.  Cowherd has been beefing up Stanford all week because they're tough and apparently Oregon's finesse game can't handle toughness.  You're trying to tell me that Portland St. isn't tough?  Oh, I guess you're right.  But since we're a blog, I don't have to be professional and I can be a homer...a homer for a team of which I have never visited their state, let alone attended their school.  Go Ducks!  Take em.  I'll take em...not that I gamble.

I have a feeling my perfect record is going to come crashing down this week.  And in the future, I might not pick 5 games.  I'm about as interested in the first 3 I mentioned as much as snorkeling in a 5:2 mixture of poo and water.  Think about that for a minute.

NFL Power Rankings: Week 3

I don't have time to expound on my picks this week, but in the interest of consistency here are my power rankings for the moment.

5. Green Bay Packers
4. Chicago Bears
3. Houston Texans
2. Indianapolis Colts
1. Pittsburgh Steelers

Minimalism, you love it.

The (W)Rap: Week 3

Another week of NFL frivolity is past, so it's time for this week's (w)rap. I went 10-6 this week, which is way better than last week's 8-8. At this pace I'll be perfect by week 6. I'd like to whine about Sebastian Janikowski missing three field goals or the Packers fumbling on their end-of-the-game scoring drive, but I also realize the Saints missing a extra-point distance field goal was pretty lucky, so maybe it all comes out even.

What did we learn from week 3, besides the fact that I watch way more football when I have the stomach flu and have to lay on the couch all day and night? Here's some highlights...

1. Two teams I haven't been buying, the Jets and the Bears, are better than I thought. I'm still not anointing them for the Super Bowl or anything, but their performances thus far have to count for something. There's not shame in losing to the Ravens (unless you talked trash about being the greatest team in the universe the whole off season...oh wait, the Jets did that) and the Bears beating the Pack was impressive. So here's to two teams I can't really stand, Here, Here!
2. The Chargers, Redskins, and Texans have issues. I've been putting the Texans at #1 in the power rankings, and I'm not backing off them as a Super Bowl contender, but they just got beat down this weekend. Most worrisome was the inability of the offense to make anything happen. Their defense isn't good enough for the offense to be average. I picked the Chargers loss to the Seahawks because I'm just not sure about the Chargers. They need Vincent Jackson and the first half mindset change. The Redskins should be better on paper, but they look crappy.
3. The Cowboys and Vikings still have a lot to prove. The Cowboys win was way better than the Vikings, but the Texans didn't have a good showing, so neither has necessarily righted the proverbial ship.
4. Ryan or I could play quarterback for the Cardinals. How in the world did Derek Anderson ever have a good year? If he showed up for a pickup game this weekend I think he'd go last. I know they only have rookies on the roster behind him, but the Cardinals should consider making a move because they're going absolutely nowhere unless they do.
5. The Broncos, Bills, and Seahawks are better than you'd think. Let's face it, neither of these teams is likely to make the playoffs, but I like them each to catch a couple teams sleeping and pull some upsets. The Seahawks already got one this weekend.